Risk Proofing Nova Scotia Agriculture: A Risk Assessment System Pilot

The AgriRisk project, funded through Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s AgriRisk Initiatives and the Nova Scotia Department of Agriculture, is a pilot project focussed on Nova Scotia’s grape and wine industry. The goal of the work was to dynamically integrate and make use of the best available data sets and key variables associated with risks along the grape and wine value chain to help contribute to achieving the outcome of a “risk-aware grape and wine industry”. By dynamically integrating the best available data and knowledge into statistical models and making those models accessible through interactive, user-friendly risk assessment tools, the project aimed to give stakeholders the opportunity to explore scenarios and risk responses at various points along the value chain.

The project aimed to achieve this outcome through meaningfully engaging and partnering with organizations and individuals with vested interests in Nova Scotia’s grape and wine industry. In partnership with them, the project sought to develop risk assessment tools that build awareness while supporting users to explore risk scenarios. The project adopted a value chain approach in recognition that the grape and wine industry is a highly interconnected system where risks or impacts would be felt throughout the value chain. The project also aimed to explore the sustainability of the initiative among partners and stakeholders in order to sustain the relationships and outcomes as well as to maximize the value of the project outcomes.

On this page you will find downloads/links for reports and tools produced through the project as well as additional resources (e.g., link to Netica program for accessing the Bayesian Network tools).

Project Final Report

Final Report – English (PDF)
Final Report – French (PDF)

Models and Tools

A collection of models and tools have been developed through the AgriRisk project. Models represented through Bayesian Network tools include grape production and winemaking. Bayesian Network models facilitate the examination of complex issues by bringing together linked or conditional variables with full consideration of uncertainties. Models represented spatially through the web viewer tool include agricultural land availability, dyke vulnerability, and grape suitability.

Interactive Climate Tools were developed as a way for users to explore current and future climate conditions in the province. An interactive wine sales tools was developed to allow users to explore trends in Nova Scotia wine sales. And finally, a Web Viewer was developed as a way to access and explore the spatial data and models produced for the project as well as view existing relevant spatial information.

Bayesian Network Tools

*Note that the three grower tools can be accessed using Netica’s Free download

Bayesian Network User Guide (PDF)
Grape Grower Yield Model (.neta file download)
Grape Grower Yield Maximizing Profit Model (.neta file download)
Grape Grower Yield Minimizing Loss Model (.neta file download)
Winery Model(.neta file download)
Integrated Grower Winery Model (.neta file download)

Climate Tools

Four climate applications have been developed by Reflecting Society for the AgriRisk project – one each focussing on frost free days (FFD), growing degree days (GGD), days less than -23°C, and days less than -18°C.  A link to each application can be found below:

Growing Degree Days
Frost Free Days
Days less than -23°C
Days less than -18

Wine Sales Tool

Reflecting Society developed an application that uses NSLC wine sales data to show aggregate wine sales in Nova Scotia from the 2007/08 to 2016/17 fiscal years. Data is displayed by year and grouped by wine type: imported wine, Nova Scotia wine (i.e., wine made from at least 85% Nova Scotia grapes), and Nova Scotia bottled wine (i.e., wine that is imported and bottled in Nova Scotia). Users have the option of viewing data by year in either table or graph format. Table format (left) provides the option of viewing multiple variables across years including total NS population, total volume of wine (L), volume of specific wine type (L), total value of all wine ($), value of specific wine type ($), total value ($), and value per capita.

Wine Sales Tool

Web Viewer Tool
An interactive Web Viewer was developed by Applied Geomatics Research Group, using a template provided by GeoNOVA, as a tool for bring together and showcase the spatial data sets developed for the AgriRisk project. The layer will include grape growing areas, current and projected grape suitability mapping, current and projected climate, soil characteristics (capability for agriculture, drainage, stoniness, and root restriction), dyke system vulnerability (probability of overtopping), and land availability for agriculture (probability).

<<Link to the Web Viewer URL>> *coming soon*

Technical Reports

Technical reports have been produced by each data provider who developed models and data sets for use in one or more AgriRisk pilot project tools, and also by contractors producing tools. Workshop reports were produced following the first and last set of workshops as a way of sharing workshop activities and results.

Bayesian Network Data Analyses and Models(PDF)
Bayesian Network Scenario Modeling Report(PDF)
Climate Data Methods and Results (PDF)
Consumer Preferences Report (PDF)
Mapping and Web-Enabling Nova Scotia’s Expanding Wine Grape Industry(PDF)
Model for Plausibility of Land Availability for Wine Grape Growing (PDF)
Nova Scotia Dyke Vulnerability Assessment(PDF)
Probability Esimates of Grape Diseases Infestation and Extent(PDF)
Scenarios Workshops Report (PDF)
Start-up Workshop Report (PDF)
Grape Operations Model(PDF)
Labour Supply Growth Projections(PDF)