AgriRisk Project Page:  Terms and Conditions

This website is owned and operated by Nova Scotia Federation of Agriculture (“NSFA”) and this portion of the website related to the Risk Proofing Nova Scotia Agriculture: A Risk Assessment System Pilot Project (the “AgriRisk Project Page”) has been provided with the support of all of NSFA, its AgriRisk Project partners and stakeholders, and the parties who have produced certain reports, applications, databases and other content (collectively referred to as “AgriRisk”).

The following terms and conditions govern access to and use of the AgriRisk Project Page and any contents, materials, software, tools, links, tips, products, services or information (the “Contents”) contained herein.  Your access to and continued use of the website constitutes your acceptance of the terms and conditions.

These terms and conditions may change from time to time and it is your responsibility to check for updates.

No License and Reserved Rights:  The  AgriRisk Project Page and the Contents do not confer and shall not be construed as conferring on anyone any license under any of AgriRisk’s or any third party’s intellectual property rights, including copyright and trademarks.  All rights are expressly reserved.  You are permitted to electronically copy and to print hard copies of pages from this website or its contents for your own personal, non-commercial use, provided such copies clearly display the copyright and any other proprietary notices of AgriRisk on its face.  No other copying of this website or its contents, in whole or in part, is permitted without the express written authorization of AgriRisk, represented by NSFA.

No Advice or Warranties: The information on the AgriRisk Project Page is provided for information purposes only and is provided on an “as is” basis and on an “as available” basis.  The facts and data provided are believed to be reliable when posted, but AgriRisk cannot guarantee that they are accurate or complete or that they will be current at all times.  The AgriRisk Project Page and its Contents may be updated by AgriRisk at any time without notice.  The AgriRisk Project Page is accessed and used by you at your own risk.  AgriRisk disclaims and makes no representations, warranties, guarantees or conditions of any kind, whether express or implied, with respect to the web site, its contents, or any software, links, tools, tips, products and services. The information on the AgriRisk Project Page is not intended to provide legal, accounting, tax or business advice and should not be relied on in that regard.  Any user should seek their own professional advice.

No Endorsement of Other Sites: The AgriRisk Project Page and/or its Contents may contain links to other websites.  Any other websites are independent from AgriRisk Project Page and AgriRisk has no control over the contents of such websites or their accuracy or appropriateness.  The provision of the link does not constitute an endorsement of the other website.


Indemnification:  You agree to indemnify and hold harmless AgriRisk and, as applicable, each party’s affiliates, successors, assigns, estate or its directors, officers, employees, agents or other representatives from and against all claims, liability and expenses, including all legal fees and costs arising from or relating to your breach of these terms and conditions of use of AgriRisk Project Page and/or the Contents.

Choice of Law:  The laws of the Province of Nova Scotia and the laws of Canada applicable therein shall govern.  You consent to submit to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Province of Nova Scotia in any action or proceeding instituted under or relate to these terms and conditions.

Survival:  Any obligations of the user of the AgriRisk Project Page in these terms and conditions shall survive the termination of any right of such user to use the AgriRisk Project Page.

Benefit of Provisions:  The terms and conditions shall be for the benefit of and may be relied upon NSFA, any AgriRisk partner or stakeholder, any parties who have produced certain reports, applications, databases and other content which form part of the AgriRisk Project Page and/or or its Contents and, as applicable, each of its affiliates, successors, assigns, estate or its directors, officers, employees, agents or other representatives.

Introduction to the AgriRisk Pilot Project

The AgriRisk project, funded through Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s AgriRisk Initiatives and the Nova Scotia Department of Agriculture, is a pilot project focussed on Nova Scotia’s grape and wine industry. The goal of the work was to dynamically integrate and make use of the best available data sets and key variables associated with risks along the grape and wine value chain to help contribute to achieving the outcome of a “risk-aware grape and wine industry”. By dynamically integrating the best available data and knowledge into statistical models and making those models accessible through interactive, user-friendly risk assessment tools, the project aimed to give stakeholders the opportunity to explore scenarios and risk responses at various points along the value chain.

The project aimed to achieve this outcome through meaningfully engaging and partnering with organizations and individuals with vested interests in Nova Scotia’s grape and wine industry. In partnership with them, the project sought to develop risk assessment tools that build awareness while supporting users to explore risk scenarios. The project adopted a value chain approach in recognition that the grape and wine industry is a highly interconnected system where risks or impacts would be felt throughout the value chain. The project also aimed to explore the sustainability of the initiative among partners and stakeholders in order to sustain the relationships and outcomes as well as to maximize the value of the project outcomes.

On this page you will find downloads/links for reports and tools produced through the project as well as additional resources (e.g., link to Netica program for accessing the Bayesian Network tools).

Project Final Report

AgriRisk Final Report English (PDF)
AgriRisk Final Report French (PDF)

Models and Tools

A collection of models and tools have been developed through the AgriRisk project. Models represented through Bayesian Network tools include grape production and winemaking. Bayesian Network models facilitate the examination of complex issues by bringing together linked or conditional variables with full consideration of uncertainties. Models represented spatially through the web viewer tool include agricultural land availability, dyke vulnerability, and grape suitability.

Interactive Climate Tools were developed as a way for users to explore current and future climate conditions in the province. An interactive wine sales tools was developed to allow users to explore trends in Nova Scotia wine sales. And finally, a Web Viewer was developed as a way to access and explore the spatial data and models produced for the project as well as view existing relevant spatial information.

Bayesian Network Tools

*Note that the three grower tools can be accessed using Netica’s Free download

Bayesian Network User Guide (PDF)
Grape Grower Yield Model (.neta file download)
Grape Grower Yield Maximizing Profit Model (.neta file download)
Grape Grower Yield Minimizing Loss Model (.neta file download)
Winery Model (.neta file download)
Integrated Grower/Winery Model (.neta file download)

Climate Tools

Four climate applications have been developed by Reflecting Society for the AgriRisk project – one each focussing on frost free days (FFD), growing degree days (GGD), days less than -23°C, and days less than -18°C.  A link to each application can be found below.

Climate projections for key variables of interest to grape growing in Nova Scotia were developed using downscaled global climate model (GCM) simulations. Daily downscaled data, derived from GCM simulations, were downloaded from the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) data portal ( and then statistically combined to form the basis of the results presented here. A total of 36 simulations were downloaded for each projection period: 18 for each emissions scenario (rcp45 and rcp85) with 18 GCM simulations downscaled using each of two methods.

For details on the methods used for developing the grape climate projection apps please see this report (link to the climate data methods report).

Growing Degree Days:
Frost Free Days: 
Days less than -23°C:
Days less than -18:

Wine Sales Tool

Reflecting Society developed an application that uses NSLC wine sales data to show aggregate wine sales in Nova Scotia from the 2007/08 to 2016/17 fiscal years. Data is displayed by year and grouped by wine type: imported wine, Nova Scotia wine (i.e., wine made from at least 85% Nova Scotia grapes), and Nova Scotia bottled wine (i.e., wine that is imported and bottled in Nova Scotia). Users have the option of viewing data by year in either table or graph format. Table format (left) provides the option of viewing multiple variables across years including total NS population, total volume of wine (L), volume of specific wine type (L), total value of all wine ($), value of specific wine type ($), total value ($), and value per capita.

The sales demo app should probably not be on the same link page as the climate demos. Can it just be a link on the AgriRisk web page with a small blurb something like:

In order to model the demand for Nova Scotia wines (i.e. wines with at least 85% of Nova Scotia grapes) data from Nova Scotia Liquor Corporation (NSLC) was used to derive statistical models of per capita consumption. These data with the associated models are available here (with link to the app). For more information on this modelling please see the Wine Sales in Nova Scotia report (link to report) as well as the synthesis report (link to synthesis report).

Wine Sales App

Web Viewer Tool
An interactive Web Viewer was developed by Applied Geomatics Research Group, using a template provided by GeoNOVA, as a tool for bring together and showcase the spatial data sets developed for the AgriRisk project. The layer will include grape growing areas, current and projected grape suitability mapping, current and projected climate, soil characteristics (capability for agriculture, drainage, stoniness, and root restriction), dyke system vulnerability (probability of overtopping), and land availability for agriculture (probability).


<<Link to the Web Viewer URL>> *coming soon*


Technical Reports

Technical reports have been produced by each data provider who developed models and data sets for use in one or more AgriRisk pilot project tools, and also by contractors producing tools. Workshop reports were produced following the first and last set of workshops as a way of sharing workshop activities and results.

Bayesian Network Data Analyses and Models

Bayesian Network Scenario Modeling Report

Climate Data Methods and Results

Consumer Preferences Report

Grape Operations Model

Labour Supply Growth Projections

Mapping and Web-Enabling Nova Scotia’s Expanding Wine Grape Industry

Model for Plausibility of Land Availability for Wine Grape Growing

Nova Scotia Dyke Vulnerability Assessment

Probability Esimates of Grape Diseases Infestation and Extent

Scenarios Workshops Report

Start-up Workshop Report